Thursday, January 05, 2006

A Fuzzy Prediction for 2006

I've already addressed the issue mathematically (GOP gains 7 House and 7 Senate seats), so today I'm going to predict the outcome of the 2006 elections based on geography.

Looking at all the Senate seats up for election this year and the results of the 2004 presidential election, I'm projecting a Republican pickup of two Senate seats.

If every state that supported President Bush elects a Republican Senator and every state that supported John Kerry elects a Democrat, Republicans will continue to make progress towards having 60+ Senate seats by advancing to 57 in 2006. The lesson for Democrats - find Republicans to run and then call them Democrats (some are still hoping for this in Virginia).

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